Newton's Law of Gravity
We're about a week out from the 2011 NFL draft and you may be asking what in the hell does Sir Isaac Newton have to do with the draft? Nothing, but we could use some physics to explain how Mel Kiper's hair seems to defy gravity. And after reading the opening sentence, I am willing to bet that many of you probably thought that Sir Isaac Newton was either: a) Cam's dad; b) Some 70's funk singer; or c) some old English dude. If you went with "c" you'd at least be in the ballpark. Sir Isaac was undoubtedly one of the most important figures in our understanding of physics. I know you're all saying who cares & where is the Cam Newton connection? There is none, aside from their last name and the fact they're both fascinating stories.
Cam is a fascinating story for a lot of reasons.
1. He is a freakish athlete, especially considering his measurables.
2. He came out of nowhere to lead the Auburn Tigers to a National Championship.
3. The claims of his father's dealings with college recruiters are just plain whacky.
4. He's had his own off the filed disciplinary issues.
5. The history and damage caused by selecting a QB #1 when they don't pan out.
6. The uncertainty atop this draft board.
There are a lot of rumblings pointing to Cam being selected very early, possibly #1 overall. Again, it's not a question of talent. Look no further than Ryan Leaf, Alex Smith or JaMarcus Russell to see what happens when you spend the #1 overall pick on a QB & they either stink or have "issues". If you look at the draft order, most of the teams in the top half have some QB questions, while the lower half is pretty set. Hmmmmmm, so assuming Cam goes in the top 15 or so, let's look at 10 teams that could or should select a QB early.
1. Carolina. This draft does not have a clear cut #1 overall, thank you Mr. Luck, which puts tremendous pressure on Carolina to get this pick right. In my first Mock I thought they would avoid Cam and go the more conservative route. If they draft Cam and he bombs, kiss three more years' goodbye and we'll see which QB the Panthers will be targeting with the #1 overall pick in 2014.
2. Denver. Not a consideration because I don't think John Fox would take Cam Newton and they have their own whacky first round QB pick from last year to sort out.
3. Buffalo. To-Fitzpatrick, or to-not-Fitzpatrick, that is the question! I like Fitzpatrick but Chan Bailey and company have been coy on this topic. If they are enamored with Cam's potential and he bombs this would sink Chan's NFL head coaching career and put Buffalo with the #1 overall pick in 2014.
4. Cincinnati. Another team in need of new leadership at the helm. They also have a history of taking players with checkered pasts. Even though ownership likes Marvin Lewis and gave him a contract extension they can't have too many more losing seasons, which looks very likely this coming season, so if I'm Lewis why not roll the dice and see if Cam can get you to the promise land.
5. Arizona. The Cards do need a new signal caller and Larry Fitzgerald has already told them who and who not to brig in. I don't see Whisenhunt taking on this big of a project, especially utilizing the 5th pick in the draft to get him. They may select a QB early, but not Newton and probably not one in round 1. Wonder what Larry Fitzgerald would say? Wonder if they consulted him first?
6. Cleveland. Very unlikely. They are sending out smoke screens but the Browns hierarchy likes what they saw from Colt McCoy and thinks with some added strength and seasoning he can put them back into contention.
7. San Francisco. Yes they need a QB. Remember the Alex Smith experiment? The guy who plays great the last 3 games of every season to make you think he has a future & then proceeds to suck for the first 13 the following season. I can't see Jim Harbaugh rolling that big a dice in his first year. Look for them to address QB in round 2.
8. Tennessee. The Titans need a QB. I would be surprised if they take one this high. Vince Young was the third overall selection in the 2006 draft and considering how that turned out I don't see them gambling on Newton, there are just too many questions. Maybe Gabbert, but that is for another article.
9. Dallas. Hard to take these rumors seriously. Because of Jerry's desire to make headlines on draft day people like to speculate but they sink or swim with Romo for the near future.
10. Washington. This will be an interesting spot to watch. I can't see Shanahan taking Newton but I can see Snyder overruling everybody and going with the splash. If Newton is available and the Skins pass, then you know Snyder has finally wisened up. I wouldn't bet on that though. If he's available at 10 grab your snack & grab a seat.
11. Houston. Set.
12. Minnesota. They are in need of a QB, and what would make Vikes fans forget the Favre years like adding a QB with their first pick? Would Leslie Frazier want to take this on his shoulders after waiting so long to get a head job? I would say they probably pass if he was available, and when a top talent starts to slide to this point, they usually keep sliding. ESPN loves that and usually tracks the poor guy around the house while he starts to get weepy.
13. Detroit. Set.
14. St. Louis. Set.
15. Miami. Another interesting spot. Like Alex Smith, Chad Henne shows enough at the right spots to tease you but I think the Fish have seen enough. Given the relationship between the Dolphins ownership and management I think they should take a flyer on Newton if he's there. He'll either make you look like geniuses and ensconce you in south Florida or he'll just put the final nail in the coffin.
16. Jacksonville. Another potential suitor. And at #16 this would be a good value pick for the Jags. David Garrard is clearly not the long-term answer, but Newton could sit for a year or two behind Garrard and refine his skills for the next level. I don't see Cam slipping past the Jags.
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